A survey of stellar X-ray flares from the XMM-Newton serendipitous source catalogue: Hipparcos-Tycho cool stars

The X-ray emission from flares on cool (i.e. spectral-type F-M) stars is indicative of very energetic, transient phenomena, associated with energy release via magnetic reconnection. We present a uniform, large-scale survey of X-ray flare emission. The XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalogue and its associated data products provide an excellent basis for a comprehensive and sensitive survey of stellar flares - both from targeted active stars and from those observed serendipitously in the half-degree diameter field-of-view of each observation. The 2XMM Catalogue and the associated time-series (`light-curve') data products have been used as the basis for a survey of X-ray flares from cool stars in the Hipparcos Tycho-2 catalogue. In addition, we have generated and analysed spectrally-resolved (i.e. hardness-ratio), X-ray light-curves. Where available, we have compared XMM OM UV/optical data with the X-ray light-curves. Our sample contains ~130 flares with well-observed profiles; they originate from ~70 stars. The flares range in duration from ~1e3 to ~1e4 s, have peak X-ray fluxes from ~1e-13 to ~1e-11 erg/cm2/s, peak X-ray luminosities from ~1e29 to ~1e32 erg/s, and X-ray energy output from ~1e32 to ~1e35 erg. Most of the ~30 serendipitously-observed stars have little previously reported information. The hardness-ratio plots clearly illustrate the spectral (and hence inferred temperature) variations characteristic of many flares, and provide an easily accessible overview of the data. We present flare frequency distributions from both target and serendipitous observations. The latter provide an unbiased (with respect to stellar activity) study of flare energetics; in addition, they allow us to predict numbers of stellar flares that may be detected in future X-ray wide-field surveys. The serendipitous sample demonstrates the need for care when calculating flaring rates.Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures. Additional tables and figures available as 4 ancillary files. To be published in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Alien Registration- Pye, Frank S. (Fort Fairfield, Aroostook County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/35496/thumbnail.jp

Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model

Many proposed low carbon transitions of the transport system have focused on decarbonisation in terms of technological transformation; however, significant opportunities exist for behavioural or demand side orientated measures to play an important role. This paper explores how one such option, mode shift, can contribute to low-carbon energy systems. For the first time, endogenous mode choice is integrated into a whole energy systems model, ESME, by representing mode speed, travel time budgets, infrastructure costs, and maximum rates of modal shift. Results indicate that the cost-optimal model solution favours sustainable transport modes, although this is strongly contingent on financial disincentives for car travel and measures to make slower modes more attractive. This approach is relevant in many different country contexts, as the need to assess options for lower carbon, more sustainable urban transport systems increases

Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts

Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions. This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility. From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries. Policy relevance Following the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase

An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways

Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, the long term consequences of decisions, and in the models and analytical approaches used. These greatly increase the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative UK energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A linked global sensitivity analysis is used to explore the uncertainties that have most impact on the transition. The analysis highlights the strong impact of uncertainty on delivering the required emission reductions, and the need for an appropriate carbon price. Biomass availability, gas prices and nuclear capital costs emerge as critical uncertainties in delivering emission reductions. Further developing this approach for policy requires an iterative process to ensure a complete understanding and representation of different uncertainties in meeting mitigation policy objectives

An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways

Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, the long term consequences of decisions, and in the models and analytical approaches used. These greatly increase the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative UK energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A linked global sensitivity analysis is used to explore the uncertainties that have most impact on the transition. The analysis highlights the strong impact of uncertainty on delivering the required emission reductions, and the need for an appropriate carbon price. Biomass availability, gas prices and nuclear capital costs emerge as critical uncertainties in delivering emission reductions. Further developing this approach for policy requires an iterative process to ensure a complete understanding and representation of different uncertainties in meeting mitigation policy objectives

Quantifying the co-impacts of energy sector decarbonisation on outdoor air pollution in the United Kingdom

The energy sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other types of air pollution that negatively impact human health and the environment. Policy targets to achieve decarbonisation goals for national energy systems will therefore impact levels of air pollution. Advantages can be gained from considering these co-impacts when analysing technology transition scenarios in order to avoid tension between climate change and air quality policies. We incorporated non-GHG air pollution into a bottom-up, technoeconomic energy systems model that is at the core of UK decarbonisation policy development. We then used this model to assess the co-impacts of decarbonisation on other types of air pollution and evaluated the extent to which transition pathways would be altered if these other pollutants were considered. In a scenario where the UK meets its existing decarbonisation targets to 2050, including the costs of non-GHG air pollution led to a 40% and 45% decrease in PM10 and PM2.5 pollution (respectively) between 2010 and 2050 due to changes in technology choice in residential heating. Conversely, limited change in the pollution profile for transportation were observed, suggesting that other policy strategies will be necessary to reduce pollution from transport